OPINION: Labor union planning in a time of evolving global changes

Even before President Trump took office in January, the President made controversial statements at a press conference. He claimed that the U.S. should buy Greenland, threatened to take over the Panama Canal and promised to add new import tariffs. He also called for the strengthening of our borders, mass deportation of all undocumented immigrants and non-citizens and possibly discourage new avenues for union growth. These are just some of the new administration policy changes, ideas and goals. As it currently stands, many of these policies have been implemented.

The current administration has not only looked to slash federal waste, it is less union-friendly than its predecessor and investors (plus everyone else) have anticipated the flurry of policy changes and statements. Every new change requires thorough scrutiny to determine its fundamental relevance to the markets and to Labor unions.

However, there are ways for unions to move beyond reactive measures and adopt proactive strategies to navigate the current economic and political landscape.

NAVIGATING LABOR MARKET FLUCTUATIONS

As the current administration puts pressure on and changes immigration policies, it will have, and already has had, an effect on various industries, from manufacturing and agriculture to the building trades. Unions across the country (including federal union jobs) need to be proactive in their efforts to combat labor shortages. Steps could include diversifying the membership base or targeting the upskilling of current members. They also can expand recruitment strategies to reduce the dependency on undocumented workers. This can include targeting high schools and vocational programs to create apprenticeships and mentorships for young workers.

ADAPTING TO EVOLVING TRADE POLICIES

Regarding tariffs and the economy, historical evidence shows that tariffs raise prices and reduce available quantities of goods and services for U.S. businesses and consumers. This in turn leads to lower income, reduced employment, lower economic output and accelerating inflation. This can and will increase union members’ cost-of-living and may outpace wage growth, which could prompt them to leave the union or possibly their particular trade.

In response to these new tariffs, several options are available, including maintaining the status quo with current supply chains, moving manufacturing to nearshore areas, re-tooling older outdated plants to gear up for new capacity and re-energizing the union workforce to compete with global trade effects.

However, nearly seven months after he took office, there has been no uptick in manufacturing employment, which remains flat at 12.7 million workers. The increased tariff revenue also amounts to slightly more than seven percent of the $1.9 trillion federal government budget deficit projected in fiscal 2025.

FINANCIAL PLANNING FOR LONG-TERM SUSTAINABILITY

The economy, tariffs and interest rates are major considerations as monetary policy changes. Based on current market movements, the markets expect the Fed to lower interest rates at a modest pace, and more than likely, at the end of the year. This reflects the inflationary risk from tariffs but also the limited economic impact in the first half of 2025.

It’s important to point out that the market’s forecast will likely change as more data becomes available, with the timing and size of rate cuts depending on inflation, trade policy developments, and economic data over the rest of the year and into 2026.

Although not in this administration’s purview, the Federal Reserve’s stance on monetary policy will impact borrowing costs, influencing project financing and developer decisions. Lower interest rates can spur more investment in commercial construction, while higher rates may slow new developments.

These monetary policy changes can and will also affect investment actions by pension plans and Taft-Hartley Plans. The market environment as we finish 2025 and move into 2026, is driving  plans to consider investment actions from a new vantage point, as interest rates, inflation, economic growth, and geopolitics, among other factors influence markets.

MAXIMIZING OPPORTUNITIES FROM INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDING

The economy, inflation and policies do not exist in a vacuum (every cause has an effect). Each impact will affect other areas. That said, despite ongoing challenges, the construction backlog remains stable.

In July 2025, the Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC) reported that its Construction Backlog Indicator rose to 8.7 months in June, according to an ABC member survey conducted June 20 to July 7. The reading is up 0.3 months since June 2024. The stability of backlogs signals a strong pipeline of projects, offering reassurance to contractors and property managers alike. This offers hope to union leaders seeking to stabilize union membership over the medium term. Although Organized Labor may be out of favor with the current administration, unions in the construction industry may find that their members’ skills are in high demand.

MEMBERSHIP IMPACTS, BRINGING IT ALL TOGETHER

Based on the new administration’s actions to date, it seems that the only thing that unions can count on for the next four years, and maybe into the future, is more uncertainty.

However, as the current administration’s policies unfold, unions will need to continue to adapt and respond, advocating for the rights and interests of American workers amidst a shifting political landscape.

The current labor scene in the United States continues to undergo a significant transformation, with implications for the future of unions. While traditional union models have faced and will continue to face challenges, emerging trends and opportunities suggest a potential resurgence and adaptation.

Although the current administration is less union-friendly, policies to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. can only help to grow union membership. As the economy evolves, a smaller labor pool may create more jobs for union workers (particularly in service industries). This, combined with a younger and more diverse workforce, may increase openness to progressive policies – including union membership.

The future of unions in the United States is complex and uncertain. However, by adapting to changing circumstances and capitalizing on emerging opportunities, unions can and should play a vital role in shaping a more equitable and just workplace for all workers.

(Amalgamated Bank of Chicago (now known as ABOC) was founded in 1922 by the Amalgamated Clothing Workers Union (now known as Workers United) to serve the financial needs of local businesses and working people. Robert Majdecki is senior vice president and chief investment officer of ABOC.)